« 特別レース、勝負レースの予想 無料公開!! | トップページ | ちまちま、どかーん。ちまちま、どかーん。 »

2006年4月 5日 (水)

競馬は相互作用する複雑系

 さてさて、ブログ開設にあたり、今回は、私の競馬への基本的なかかわり方、なんてことを書いておこうか。

 20数年、馬券を買い続けてきたんだが、結論は実は出ている。「競馬は相互作用する複雑な系である」ってこと。複雑系に関する書物を紐解くと、気象や株式市場なんかと並んで競馬が取り上げられることが多い。つまり、競馬こそ、複雑系の典型ってことだな。では、複雑系の最大の特徴は何か、というと、相互作用する個々の事例を数値化して比較しても実はなんの意味もない、ってことだ。バタフライ効果って言葉がある。中国で一つ羽ばたいた蝶のエネルギーがフロリダで竜巻を起こしたりするのが複雑系なわけで競馬においても個々の馬の能力(スピード指数とか)を数値化して比較しても結果の予想にはならない。競馬予想の世界では「展開」というあいまいな概念で語られる事柄だが。

 いきなり、みもふたもないが、じゃあ、どうすればいいのか。

 一つのレースに接するとき、私は「展開」など予想しない。その通りにレースが動くことなど皆無だから。要は、そのレースがどこまで複雑か、ということを見極めること。そして、勝負レースは最も複雑ではないレースを選ぶことである。私はこれを密かに「ニュートン力学競馬」と呼んでいる。もちろん、障害レース以外は全レース予想して馬券も買うが、「ニュートン力学競馬」以外は、単なる当てもの。当たれば「運がいい」と思うことにしている。しかし、複雑系の概念を持ち出さなくても単純なニュートン力学で解けるレースもないわけじゃない。簡単に言えば、一頭だけ能力が抜けた馬がいるレースの単勝馬券は、複雑系をブッちぎれる、と考えるわけである。よって、勝負は単勝、ということになる(3連単っていう馬券はほぼすべて複雑系の解明が必要になるもんな)。連勝馬券より単複はなぜか控除率が低い、ってのも積み重なれば大きいぞ。能力の測定はいたってシンプル。走破タイムと上がり3ハロンタイムを基準にして考える。スピード指数の計算などしなくても、要は「抜けた馬」がいればいいわけだから(レース前半のタイムについては今も試行錯誤中)。

 したがって、馬単馬券も遊びのようなものかもしれない。馬単のヒモを予想する「ハイペース好走馬」とダートの「血統予想」については、また稿を改めて。

 予想の発表は金曜、土曜の深夜。今週末、不肖・中田46歳がどこまでダメ人間か、白日のものとに晒されるであろう。

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« 特別レース、勝負レースの予想 無料公開!! | トップページ | ちまちま、どかーん。ちまちま、どかーん。 »

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